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Post 2047 Arrangement

就華坊2020年1 月於《信報》發表有關 2047年地契續期的意見,我們資深董事梁沛泓近日亦獲《壹週刊》追訪。梁先生提出近日港大經管學院副教授建議提高住宅物業差餉率,以及民建聯建議港府增加物業增值稅、遺產稅等,以收窄貧富差距等事件。他認為這一連串事件,令社會擔心政府會向物業持有人「開刀」。他認為政府有權就金融市場穩定、政府支出、貧富差距等因素,釐定將來補地價金額和地租。

他列出 2020年政府較有指標性的賣地地價,並與同區屋苑呎價比較。他解釋,如果政府要求「補足地價」,從契約修訂的案例中,可推算與市場招標賣地價會有相當折讓。該補地價金額假設可分期支付,再按回報率折現至今,約佔樓價兩成。住宅補地價的風險比工商舖低。新界的地價佔整物業價值的比例較少,影響亦較小。但他認為投資者無須因為補地價的風險,而影響投資物業地區的選擇。二幅住宅地皮可售63至65億,每呎樓面地價43,500至44,800元,屬市場估值下限。

2047  alex leung 梁沛泓 華坊

Following his opinion piece on the post-2047 land lease arrangements in Hong Kong Economic Journal in January last year, Alex Leung of CHFT, was interviewed by Next Magazine on the same topic recently. Alex referred to two commentaries. One was by the School of Economics and Management of HKU, who proposed to increase the property rates from current 5% to 15%. The other was the DAB proposing to levy value-added tax and inheritance tax. These two commentaries elicited public concerns about govt could take money out of the pockets of property owners.

He cited govt land tenders that were considered benchmarks in 2020 and compared unit rate of flats in residential estates nearby. He explained if land owners were required to pay land premium “in full” upon lease extension, there would be still considerable discounts with reference to lease modification cases. Suppose the govt assessed land premium amount could be paid in instalments, the burden of the premium would be roughly 20% of the flat prices on the average, in present value. And, the risk of paying land premium for residential properties is lower than that commercial properties.


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